A colleague shared Tech in 2020: standing on the shoulders of giants with me which I thought was interesting read and really nailed how a lot of Tech companies are really existing businesses/sectors expanding where they operate.

It presents regulation as the new area of development, however rather than regulation being new, I think governments will look to apply and bring into scope existing anti-competitive practice legislation. E.g. Facebook buying competitors ( Instagram and WhatsApp), eBay buying Gumtree. Which is why eBay can charge 15% on sales. It can also be seen in cases like Microsoft Vs. EU in 2004.

I suspect Tech companies will continue to move into regulated industries, Monzo, Starling are two standout one’s there’s also Bo which is presenting as a Tech startup but is owned by NatWest.

Also I disagree with the representation of Main Frames -> Home computing -> Smartphones as being separate developments. The dream of a computer in your pocket has existed from the 60s and really they’re all connected and part of maturing technologies. Super compact portable computers e.g. smartphones do away with vast swathes of products and technology. In the 80's BT developed a portable computer with a head up display and pocket interface essentialy Google Glasses but with the technology of the day. Apple had the Newton. The utility of a smartphone has been clear for a long time it was just waiting on the technology to catch up.

With regards to future trends, I’d put my money on battery tech, and more broadly power storage along with and bio-reactor produced and engineered foods for having the potential to cause major changes. They both have very clear utility but are waiting for technology to catch up.

It will be interesting to see how this post ages.